Thursday, January 15, 2009

MVC Standings at the 1/3 mark

The Salukis are in the #7 spot (2-4) with 6 games in the books, and 12 left to play. Usually, this would be a good reason to panic, but a sharp improvement over the last two weeks is a reason for optimism.

So here's how the standings shape up-

Bradley and UNI are tied at the top with 5-1 marks. The Salukis are already 3 games behind these teams, so it looks like a #1 or #2 seed in the MVC Tourney is probably out of the question.

Illinois State, Creighton, and Drake are all one game back at 4-2. Not much separates these teams from each other in my opinion.

Any of these top 5 clubs could win the Valley and I wouldn't be surprised. The league has incredible balance this season, and we're seeing that reflected in the standings.

Evansville sits alone in 6th place, one game better than the Salukis at 3-3. This is the spot where the Salukis need to be. Circle Jan 31st on your calendar as the Salukis head to Evansville with a chance to sweep the season series against the Aces. If the Dawgs win that game, they'll just have to match Evansville's win total during the remainder of the season to earn the #6 seed and avoid playing a Thursday night game.

Sure, earning a 1 or 2 seed makes your path to the semi-finals much easier, but there is hardly any difference between 3, 4, 5, or 6 seed in the Valley this year.

Regardless of their seeding, the Salukis will have to have to beat at least 3 of the top 5 teams in the current standings to get an NCAA Tournament bid. The only way that can happen is if the team continues to get better. There's no better measuring stick for that improvement than Sunday's game against a Bradley team that throttled the Salukis in a 16 point beat down just 3 weeks ago.

Sunday's match up vs Bradley- 6:05 pm ESPNU- (Dan McLaughlin and Mac McCausland)

Bradley (11-6, RPI #61) has been going to a 4-guard set at times year despite losing junior guard Andrew Warren (broken foot) for the season. While the Braves have 6 newcomers in their lineup, they're young players are not nearly as talented as Southern's freshman class. 5-11 guard Eddren McCain (6.1ppg, 3.6apg) is the only freshman that has the potential to make an impact, and the Braves will rely mostly on Theron Wilson and Sam Maniscalco to carry the load.

For very short stretches the Salukis could counter the Braves with a 4-guard lineup of their own. Unless the big men get into early foul trouble I wouldn't expect a 4-guard set for long though, because Evans and Booker are both earning increased playing time.

One key improvement since the last time these teams met, is the movement and spacing of the Salukis in their motion offense. Better spacing has allowed for more open looks, and the results have shown in the stat sheet. Look for more of the same on Sunday.

SalukiHoops Prediction- the Salukis even the score against the Braves with a 72-64 victory at SIU Arena.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

i doubt siu can beat bradley. they killed em in peoria. siu hasnt been very good at home this year.